In Africa, elders visit one another’s homesteads only on very special occasions. And when they do, such visits carry more significance than the eyes can see.
Early this week, President William Ruto paid a courtesy call on his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, at the latter’s Ichaweri home in Gatundu, Kiambu County. The visit was officially billed as normal consultation between statesmen for purposes of sharing ideas on national matters, focusing on political reconciliation, economic challenges and governance. After the high profile meeting, the two leaders issued two separate statements. President Ruto’s statement emphasized the achievements of the Kenya Kwanza administration, and praised Kenyatta’s legacy as a statesman. The President singled out the fact that the former head of state handed over power peacefully to the winning candidate despite supporting a different person. The head of state attributed the current economic woes facing Kenya to global factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia/Ukraine war that have disrupted the global supply chains.
On his part, Uhuru Kenyatta urged the current administration to bridge the widening political divide, stop harassment of opposition figures, establish a strong and effective opposition, reconstitute the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), and embrace inclusivity in governance.
On the surface value, the issues raised by the two statesmen were critical to addressing political tension and economic challenges that the country is currently grappling with. Pundits, however, opine that the visit was part of President Ruto’s strategy to pacify and regain influence over the Mount Kenya region that has been drifting away following the impeachment of former Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua. It is apparent that the region had their eye on Rigathi Gachagua as part of their succession plan, and his removal from the number two slot has caused shockwaves and sent them back to the drawing board. The appointment of Kithure Kindiki from the numerically inferior Tharaka Nithi County in place of Rigathi Gachagua has only managed to reaffirm the Gikuyu as the fulcrum of the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru Association (GEMA). The President’s new deputy is yet to have any meaningful political impact in the region. It is very unlikely that the populous Gikuyu will consider Kithure Kindiki as a suitable replacement for their man, Rigathi Gachagua. Insiders argue that the main role that the Embu and Meru have played since the formation of GEMA has been to act as ‘flower girls’ for their Gikuyu cousins in political duels with ‘outsiders.’ Therefore, if the government thought that Kindiki’s appointment had the potential to consolidate the entire Mount Kenya region to support the President, then the strategy has fallen on its face. The region remains largely unmoved by this appointment, and it should not be surprising if it pools its votes into one basket against President Ruto. In the August 2022 presidential poll, the vote-rich Mount Kenya region threw its weight firmly behind William Ruto. Ruto won the presidency despite the fact that his main rival at the time, Raila Odinga, was believed to enjoy tremendous state goodwill. It has been argued that President Ruto’s slight win over Raila Odinga was attributed to the massive support that he got from the Mount Kenya region. So intense was the region’s support for William Ruto that the voters curiously defied President Uhuru Kenyatta’s counsel to support Raila Odinga. It has now transpired that the region’s decision on the 2022 presidential poll was more about the disdain of Raila Odinga than the love of William Ruto. In a nutshell, President Ruto won the Mount Kenya region’s votes not because they loved him, but because they hated Raila Odinga with passion. So, the vote was, above everything else, to stop Raila Odinga from ascending to the presidency. The significance of the foregoing is that if Raila becomes the next Chairman of the African Union Commission in February 2025, and chooses not to contest the presidency in 2027, the Mount Kenya region will be walking on political eggshell. First, the voter turnout in the region might be significantly reduced. This is because the “scarecrow” that has previously been used to mobilize voters ostensibly to protect their region from perceived dangers will not be on the presidential ballot. At the same time, the Mount Kenya region would prefer a situation where Raila is in the presidential ballot in 2027 so as to deny Ruto a formidable voting bloc comprising former Nyanza, Coast, Western and Rift Valley provinces. Such a situation would make both Raila and Ruto highly susceptible to defeat by a candidate sponsored by the Mount Kenya region that is likely to vote as a bloc. In addition, there is the Kalonzo Musyoka factor. The former Vice President has stood by Raila at least three times in his presidential bids. It is now Raila’s turn to support Kalonzo Musyoka to try his luck at the presidency. If this comes to pass, then President Ruto’s reelection in 2027 will be in great jeopardy. Both Ruto and the Mount Kenya leaders are alive to this fact, hence the unrelenting focus on Raila as the 2027 ‘King Maker.’ Since Raila announced his support for a broad-based consultative framework to address some of the woes that the country was facing, the Mount Kenya axis has interpreted this move as the clearest sign yet that Raila Odinga is drifting towards President Ruto, and might, in fact, jolt his chances in 2027. The region has responded to Raila’s move by trying to blackmail him as a sellout who rushed to support Ruto to stay in power when the entire country wanted him out of power. Keen observers have discerned a determination by the Mount Kenya region to blame all the country’s woes since 2013 on President Ruto. In fact, a narrative is being bandied around that all the mega corruption cases during Uhuru’s reign that have been reported by the Auditor General were all perpetrated by William Ruto while the president was busy on national issues. Amidst all the Raila and Ruto bashing, the Mount Kenya team appears to have forgotten that it was them, and not Raila, who made Ruto president. One wonders why people would make a deliberate decision, then expect Raila to come to their rescue once they have burnt their fingers. Matters were not made any better when Raila’s party, ODM, released five of its senior members to join Ruto’s Cabinet. There have been intensified calls to have ODM members leave the Cabinet. Curiously, the same people who are asking Raila to stop supporting Ruto’s government have not asked Cabinet Secretaries and Principal Secretaries from their regions or political parties to resign from the same government that they seem to hate so much! If the Mount Kenya axis truly believes that Ruto’s government is irredeemably bad, then they should surely ask everybody in the government to resign, and not just former ODM officials. That smacks of dishonesty. The same Mount Kenya team has been decampaigning Raila for the AUC Chairmanship. This is a huge deviation from best practice where countries show unqualified support to their own citizens who are gunning for regional or international positions. Sadly, some Kenyans are wishing Raila bad luck so that he not only remains in the country, but also contests the presidency in 2027. The group is determined to create a wedge between President Ruto and ODM leader, Raila Odinga, in a bid to have both of them in the presidential ballot to divide their formidable voting bloc. On the other hand, President Ruto, being cognizant of the fact that he may have lost a big chunk of his erstwhile support base in the Mount Kenya region, is desperate to keep Raila to his corner, and hopefully be a beneficiary of a “Ruto Tosha” moment in 2027. Perhaps more than any other politician in Kenya today, Raila enjoys frenzied following in many parts of Kenya. As he moves into political sunset -the enigma turns 80 next month – it should be in his objective interest to hand over the dyed-in-the-wool support bases to a capable politician under whose wings a new leader can emerge. President Moi nurtured the Gikuyu community for more than two decades after Jomo Kenyatta’s demise. Likewise, Raila played such a role to the Kalenjin community after President Moi went into retirement until William Ruto emerged to lead them. As fate would have it, if Raila exits the local political stage, President William Ruto is poised to play a foster father role for the Luo community until another strong leader emerges organically to succeed Baba. Another constituency that President Ruto needs to pay meticulous attention to is the Gen-Z brigade. Following the June uprisings, the government is yet to win back the Gen-Zs into their fold. Given their huge numbers, the Gen-Zs can easily sway the vote in 2027. The government can only take the Gen-Zs for granted at their own risk. The winner of the 2027 presidential poll is likely to be the political formation that will fully embrace the Gen-Zs, and incorporate them into key decision making organs within their ranks .
Meanwhile, Uhuru Kenyatta remains the undisputed Gikuyu leader, whose wise counsel is greatly sought after by the community. A visit by President William Ruto to Ichaweri is likely to signal a thawing of relations with his predecessor. After all, there is an old adage that says that there is no permanent enmity in politics, only permanent interests. Nothing stops Uhuru and Ruto from working together in 2027. The two politicians have been tied at the hips since their days in KANU. Uhuru seems keen on consolidating his legacy which appeared to have been thrown into disarray when the Mount Kenya voters rejected his choice for the presidency in 2022. It is highly likely that President Ruto’s forays into the Mount Kenya region will not stop any time soon. The President needs to intensify his visits to the region with a hope of reducing the sympathy votes that Rigathi Gachagua now enjoys in abundance. In a Presidential system, where a winning candidate requires only one vote above his/her closest competitor, the president cannot afford to ignore any vote. In the absence of Rigathi Gachagua, the only other person who can help President Ruto to mobilize votes in the Mount Kenya region is Uhuru Kenyatta. The visits shall continue; and the country shall continue to watch them closely.
