President William Ruto is confronting a major political challenge following Raila Odinga’s unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission chairperson seat. With many unanswered questions, the political landscape remains uncertain.
Ruto’s fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, which led to Gachagua’s impeachment, has significantly cost him support in the Mt Kenya region. Gachagua has since vowed to frustrate Ruto’s 2027 reelection bid, pledging to rally opposition against him.
The President had hoped that Raila’s election to the AU Commission, a bid he strongly championed, would strengthen his ties with Odinga’s support base, countering his dwindling influence in Mt Kenya. However, Raila was eliminated in the seventh round of voting on Saturday, with Djibouti’s Mahamoud Youssouf gaining the upper hand from the third round onward.
This outcome has triggered speculation about the future of the broad-based government and the working relationship between Ruto and Raila.
Raila’s candidacy had initially served as a unifying factor in their political alliance, but analysts now predict significant realignments. Political commentator Daniel Wangui noted that the broad-based government was built on mutual benefits, and Raila’s loss could shake its foundation.
Meanwhile, tensions in Parliament continue to rise after National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula’s ruling granted Kenya Kwanza the majority status. A heated session is expected on Tuesday as Azimio lawmakers insist they hold the majority position.
Despite the AU setback, Raila, 80, signaled he remains active in politics, stating he would return home to focus on other matters.
At the same time, Gachagua and his allies have seized the moment to court Raila in an effort to weaken Ruto’s chances of securing a second term.
“Africa needed you, but God found that Kenya still has unfinished business with you,” Gachagua remarked, hinting at a possible alliance to challenge Ruto.
However, some of Ruto and Raila’s allies dismissed claims that the AU loss would derail their cooperation. Deputy President Kithure Kindiki urged both leaders to stay the course, emphasizing the need for national unity.
“We encourage the President and former Prime Minister to remain focused and continue working together for the country,” Kindiki stated.
As political maneuvering intensifies, all eyes are now on the next moves by Ruto, Raila, and their allies.
