Kenya’s candidate for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson, Raila Odinga, faces a potential setback following a last-minute push by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to support Madagascar’s nominee, former Foreign Affairs Minister Richard J. Randriamandrato.
A letter from the SADC Secretariat, dated February 12, 2025, urged member states to rally behind Randriamandrato, emphasizing regional unity and the need to maintain continuity in the AU’s senior leadership. The move follows Mauritius’ withdrawal from the race, leaving Madagascar as the only SADC-backed candidate.
Odinga had previously reported that he had secured the backing of Mauritius’ candidate, former Foreign Affairs Minister Anil Kumarsingh Gayan, before the country pulled out of the contest. Additionally, he will be competing against Djibouti’s former Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf.
The push by SADC follows a directive issued at its August 2024 meeting in Harare, Zimbabwe, where the bloc’s Council instructed its Committee of Ambassadors in Addis Ababa to closely monitor the election and guide SADC’s approach in securing key AU leadership positions.
The Secretariat’s latest communication is seen as part of this strategy, reinforcing the region’s position ahead of the high-stakes election.
“The Republic of Madagascar has formally written to the Secretariat seeking the support of SADC member states for its candidate. Given the short time before the election, there is no need to convene an Extraordinary Council of Ministers to consider the request,” read the letter signed by SADC Executive Secretary Elias M. Magosi.
SADC’s backing of Madagascar presents a diplomatic challenge for Odinga, who has been viewed as a frontrunner in the race. His campaign has received strong support from President William Ruto, who has been engaging leaders across the continent to secure endorsements.
However, with SADC controlling 16 out of the AU’s 55 member states (only 49 will vote), the bloc’s alignment with Madagascar could shift the dynamics of the election.
Despite this, the letter acknowledges that each member state retains the right to vote independently based on national interests, leaving room for Kenya to continue lobbying individual SADC countries.
SADC’s endorsement of Randriamandrato aligns with broader efforts to strengthen regional representation within AU leadership. However, historical voting patterns in AU elections indicate that national interests often take precedence over regional consensus.
While the SADC position could weaken Odinga’s ability to consolidate votes from the bloc, his campaign is expected to intensify efforts in other regions, particularly in East and West Africa, where Kenya has stronger diplomatic ties.
With the AUC elections set for Saturday, Kenya is expected to escalate diplomatic efforts to counter SADC’s move.
The endorsement of Madagascar’s candidate highlights the geopolitical complexities surrounding the election, as regional blocs compete for influence within the AU.
While SADC’s backing boosts Madagascar’s chances, the final outcome will depend on the voting decisions of individual member states, many of which remain open to persuasion in the final hours before the election.
